Paragon’s PPM Rulebook (PDF) Tips on Understanding Early PPM Results
It is very early in the PPM process. Programmers and consultants everywhere are worked into an understandable frenzy because of the top 10 radio markets scheduled to be measured by PPM in 2008. Arbitron radio ratings are the yardstick by which radio stations measure success, so it’s understandable that we all want to know about this new yardstick.
However, the frenzy to lean on early PPM results is disconcerting, and potentially problematic. Over-reacting to early data is potentially worse than not reacting at all. Don’t panic, stay calm, and only make measured responses that do not paint your station into a corner if and when conflicting PPM information arises. In all likelihood, that will occur as further data unfolds.
Added 7/17/07
Rule #2: Get “married” to your core audience, but stay “engaged” to your cume audience
With PPM, the value of core listeners remains essential to a station’s final ratings. However, a balance of core and cume audiences is still required. Don’t over-focus on either core or cume, but create a compelling mix of content for your entire listening audience.
Added 7/23/07
Rule #3: Retain listeners for longer periods
Because PPM data show lower TSL than with the diary, bolstering TSL is a critical objective for any station. Structure your programming to keep the average listener listening longer for each visit. Successfully doing so will provide a significant increase in ratings. Very simply, here’s how, according to Arbitron’s Ed Cohen:
1. What are you doing that you would not be doing if you didn’t have the diary method? STOP doing those things.
2. What would you be doing had the diary measurement not been in place? START doing those things.
Rule#3 Sample Strategies Added 7/23/07
Rule #4: Set more listening appointments
Many more of the shorter-duration listening occasions are being counted by PPM, which may be the reason that Rock and Oldies stations are doing better in the early returns from the PPM. More than ever, converting the proverbial “dial-puncher” to at least a P3 or P4 to your station becomes essential. Devise programming strategies that give listeners reasons to tune in more frequently.
Added 7/23/07
Rule #5: Understand the value of different listeners
Shape your programming strategies to reflect the value of different listeners. If 60% of your AQH comes from P1s, 20% from P2s, and 10% each from P3s and P4s, then your programming strategy should place a higher value on P1s. Also, consider that it takes three P2s to equal the value of one P1, and it takes six P3s or P4s to equal the value of one P1. The value of courting and maintaining P1s is very high, but the incremental value of P2s, P3s and P4s adds up, and in many cases, they are your future P1s.
Added 7/23/07
Rule #6: Delineate between your “Loyal P1s” and your “Fickle P1s”
If half of all P1s change their most-listened to station in less than six weeks, then it is critical to differentiate your “Loyal P1s” from your “Fickle P1s.” This has ramifications to your station’s research, contesting, loyalty programs, etc. Ultimately increasing your “Loyal P1s” and decreasing your “Fickle P1s” may be the most impactful ratings driver available.
Added 7/23/07
Rule #7: Integrate programming
Review your programming transitions to ensure that they are as seamless and forward-moving as possible. Don’t force the listener to notice changes in programming. Instead, glide them through your programming adjustments in a less obtrusive way and with more continuity.
Rule #7 Sample Strategies Added 7/17/07
Rule #8: Location, location, location
More than ever, DIAL POSITION should be key to your marketing and positioning efforts. Remember, with PPM the game has shifted from “make listeners remember they listen” to “make them listen.” Central to “making them listen” is a clear marketing and positioning path to your station. Selling your dial position is more important than ever, but should not be done at the expense of selling your brand, too.
Added 7/23/07
Rule #9: Avoid “punch out lines”
Don’t give your audience a reason to tune out, even for commercials. Avoid “punch out lines” such as, “We’ll be right back.”, or “Back in two minutes.”
Rule #9 Sample Strategies Added 7/17/07
Rule #10: Don’t play “rubber clock” games
The meter captures realtime listening, and knows it is 12:03 and not 12:10. Throw away anything and everything you did previously that tried to “trick” the listener into recording more listening to your station in the diary.
Rule #10 Sample Strategies Added 7/17/07
Rule #11: View the data with skepticism
This rule isn’t a slam at Arbitron, the meter, or the methodology. This rule is a reality of all research you receive and digest. Who is in the sample? What are the sample sizes? To what degree, if any, are the data weighted? How should I internalize and interpret these data? Interep CEO Dave Kennedy, who holds a doctorate degree in research, has always preached, “View all research with skepticism.”
It’s imperative that you know and then communicate through your station’s selling habits that you understand the sample. In light of the new panel methodology Arbitron is using, you must also know how panels work and how the panel in your market is working. You simply can’t afford to not know.
Rule #11 Sample Strategies Added 8/29/07
Inspired by David Kennedy, CEO Interep
Rule #12: Promotions should be hyper-focused to the working person and working communities
Working people are driving the early ratings. Early PPM data shows that employed persons spend 16 hours a week listening to radio compared to nine and one-half hours among their TV-infused counterparts who don’t work. Working people have more opportunities to tune to radio during their commutes and while working. With PPM, working persons provide the largest quarter hour payoff.
Added 8/29/07
Rule #13: Don’t be shy about targeting men
The Males are back. Men are now the majority of AQH ratings because PPM is apparently doing a better job of capturing of the true listening occasions of men. Men tune in on more occasions than Women. Having a true measurement of male listening that buffers those who over-reported radio listening is a boon to Male-oriented formats like Rock. Oldies and Adult Hits have also enjoyed more success in the early going for PPM in Philadelphia and Houston.
Added 8/29/07
Rule #14: Demand better internal sample management from Arbitron
Arbitron has raised the bar for radio ratings by providing a better methodology. However, a better methodology with inadequate sampling is still poor research. Radio must now raise the bar for Arbitron by holding Arbitron accountable to better sampling. Hitting total sample targets is important, but hitting internal demo targets is critical (ex. M18-24, ethnic quotas, etc.).
Cox Radio CEO Bob Neil took an early stand on this issue, which we support, stating that the industry needs every demo to come in “as promised – it’s what we are paying for.” Radio will know if Arbitron is providing reliable internal sample sizes based on the stability (or instability) of Average Quarter Hour (AQH) shares within demos and dayparts as PPM data rolls out.
Rule #14 Sample Strategies Added 9/11/07
Inspired by Bob Neil, CEO Cox Radio
Rule #15: Don’t sweat the rankers
Until Rule #14 (Demand Better Internal Sample Management from Arbitron) is enforced, early reports suggest that AQH shares are fluctuating significantly with PPM (compared to the diary). This fluctuation allegedly is pronounced when observing age/gender/ethnic within dayparts. However, Arbitron President/Sales & Marketing Pierre Bouvard correctly points out a new reality:
“In a PPM world, rank position is a lot LESS meaningful,” according to Arbitron. “With station audiences so tightly compressed, there is little difference between number one and number 15. Among 25-54′s in the Houston July book, there was only a .2 AQH rating difference between number 1 and number 15! There was a five way tie for first, a six way tie for second, and a four way tie for third.” Bouvard continues, “So if your rank bounces around in a PPM world? Relax. Don’t panic. You’re better off trending your AQH Persons or AQH Rating which will be very consistent and stable. We are ‘rank obsessed’ in radio. We tout our audience ranks to each other like crazy. ‘The World is Flat’ in a PPM world.”
Added 9/11/07
Inspired by Pierre Bouvard,
Arbitron President/Sales & Marketing
Rule #16: Afternoon drive programming is just as important as morning drive
This has the potential to become a major revolution in the way we strategically program and sell the day.
McVay Media’s Chris Conley observes that in Philadelphia there is more Cume in PM drive than in AM drive in the total market. We’ll need to see Quarter Hour/TSL data in order to see if afternoon drive has as much or more impact on the overall ratings.
Added 10/4/07
Inspired by Chris Conley, McVay Media
Rule #17: Brand strategy marketing is more important than hit and miss marketing games
It’s important that when a PPM panelists tunes in the radio that your station is the 1st or at least 2nd station he or she thinks of when launching that listening occasion. Therefore, the brand—what you’re famous for—needs to be continually promoted. Constantly work to enhance your brand: What are the magic words that communicate your station’s unique usage benefits? You need to keep coming back to those benefits over and over again in your ad campaigns. It’s analogous to constant image advertising as opposed to airing price and item sale information.
Added 10/4/07
Inspired by Chris Conley, McVay Media
Rule #18: Keep an acurate event audit
PPM allows you to see cause and effect better than the diary ever could. In countless examples from Arbitron’s John Snyder, we have seen how specific events either drive up cume and AQH or where the audience has exited. With the granularity of PPM data, programmers should keep a detailed, accurate “diary” (sorry couldn’t resist) of events on their station and the competitive landscape (special guests, giveaways, marketing campaigns, news events, etc.) and then cross reference once the data for that time period is released. You’ll get the opportunity to truly see the dynamics between content and consumption, if you know when these events occurred.
Added 11/2/07
Inspired by Harv Blain,
Vallie Richards Donovan Consulting – Chicago
“Although we are rolling out PPM in Canada over the next year, we do not anticipate any of the causes of delay seen in the US.
I believe the reason for Arbitron’s PPM delay is a bit complicated, but important to note that it is 100% related to sampling and 0% related to the PPM technology.
BBM uses only the PPM technology. But we use a different sampling method, different panel management procedures and software, and different calculation engines.
BBM also operates in a different environment without the complex sampling requested of Arbitron.
The BBM recruitment and panel management system has been operated successfully since the launch of electronic measurement in television in 1998.
Our Quebec and Montreal PPM panel has operated since 2004, using the same processes, with very high scores for daily participation, panel balance, monthly turnover and stability. I think we can expect the radio PPM panels to achieve similar results when commercialized further in several markets beginning in 2008″
Thanks for the great insight Mike.
We are very interested in how the PPM is affecting stations in the US. It’s great to have your input on this.
Julie Adam
GM/PD
98.1 CHFI
Toronto
Thanks to the PPM, almost every adult format can draw a legitimate straight line from their product to fans listening while they work.
People listen to the Radio in a wide variety of locations while working, not only the traditional “at-work” places tha typically come to mind. Secretaries and office folks, sure. But also drywallers listening to Classic Rock … Cabbies who never miss Rush … warehouse bobcat drivers with Country stations blaring over the machine noise … FedEx delivery drivers who move their day and your packages with Top-40.
With the meters picking up every listener and every listen, other formats no longer have to surrender working hours to the softer and background competitors.
Bob Harper
Us radio folk like to form early and fast opinions about a lot of things. Often we can do this without a lot of data!
” Remember: Don’t ever play two female songs together?” There never was any real data to support that myth, but it sure sounded authoritative, so we believed it. Let’s try not to do the same with PPM.
There are plenty of early and fast pronouncements about PPM. Remember there are only two markets of data up and running. I’m so glad “Don’t Panic” is the first rule. Let’s be open minded as we assess the data and the sample.
One example of “Don’t panic”. In a PPM world, rank position is a lot LESS meaningful. With station audiences so tightly compressed, there is little difference between number one and number 15. Among 25-54′s in the Houston July book, there was only a .2 AQH rating differecne between number 1 and number 15! There was a five way tie for first. A six way tie for second. And a four way tie for third. So if you’re rank bounces around in a PPM world? Relax. Don’t panic. You’re better off trending your AQH Persons or AQH Rating which will be very consistent and stable.
We are “rank obsessed” in radio. We tout our audience ranks to each other like crazy. “The World is Flat” in a PPM world.
Take the opportunity to visit our PPM website
http://www.arbitron.com/portable_people_meters/home.htm for more information and incites.
Pierre Bouvard
President, Sales and Marketing.
Arbitron, Inc.
We’re dancing around the elephant in the room.
Don’t panic? When the agencies are paying little or no attention to rule #11. Tell that to Urban radio.
If you have to view the data with skepticism, what do you tell the agencies – that it’s wrong? That some part of their buy is right but you’re not sure which part? That they should buy now and it’ll get better later?
I agree that we’re in the early innings – but with radio down 2% in business and a new system that can’t statistically support the granularity agencies want (ppm samples are WAY too small),and wobbles that make the old diary system look stable, ppm could do radio a lot of harm if its image is not managed more pro-actively right now, especially by the larger radio groups.
Sounds like we need to un-invent the old wheel or “clock”. Common sense. Like Dave said, find out what they want and give it to them. I think the dial position should be the biggest thing in the logo as well.
Despite the technology issues (aren’t there always?) – - it seems that BASIC RADIO 101 PROGRAMMING is due. Do what you can to keep ‘em listening.
Simplify.
1. Find out what they want.
2. Give them as MUCH as you can.
3. See #1.
(Oh yeah, quit giving them reasons to leave…or at least give ‘em SPECIFIC reasons to come back – -based on #1).
Our industry has always had the most creative people imaginable…now’s the time to prove it. Again.