At the end of 2008, I made 16 predictions for radio in 2009, nine of which came true.  Here are the 2009 predictions that did come to pass with comments:

1. Advertising spending will stall or fall.  (Fell by double digits.)
2. At least one major radio group, and several smaller ones, will go belly-up.  (Still waiting for the “major” group to fall, which will be early next year at the latest.)
3. Two distinct radio group tracks will emerge.  (Led by new entrant Alpha Broadcasting and joining Bonneville and a few select other “operators”.)  
4. A new radio “operator” will emerge.  (“Alpha” means first, and it was.)
5. Talent prices will escalate for the few, and will fall for the majority.  (Yep.)
6. News, talk, sports and business formats will grow.  (Now borders on a mass movement.)
7. Conservative talk will grow.  (Big time…led by the emergence of Glenn Beck.)
8. At least one of the radio trade publications will fold.  (Goodbye R&R.)  
9. Arbitron will see its radio ratings monopoly challenged.  (Hello Nielsen.)

So, what’s in store for 2010?

First of all, expect more of the same from the 2009 list above.  Advertising dollars will not return to previous levels, the “operator” track will gain traction and another new group or two will enter that fold for the long-term game.  News/Talk/Sports formats will continue to replace music formats (especially with the Performance Rights Act in play), conservative Talk will gain momentum the longer Obama is in power, and the new ratings consortium led by major advertisers will gain momentum.

Now, for the Big 3 predictions for 2010:

#3:  At least one of the following radio groups will say “buh bye” next year—Clear Channel, Cumulus, Regent, or Citadel.  The grim reaper has been outside their door for months.  With ad revenues continuing to sputter, at least one of these groups will not make their notes and will be taken over and divested.

#2:  Radio listening levels will stabilize.  I believe that radio has taken the big (initial) hit from New Media and survived.  With the economy as it is, and the general return to known quantities, radio will prove to be the cockroach everyone used to say it was:  you can’t kill it.  In mid-2008, Paragon released our Youth Radio & New Media Study that showed listening to radio had leveled off  among younger listeners.  At the time a lot of people were skeptical (one noted researcher publicly questioned the reliability), and to be fair, at the time it did seem like a major sea change from the listening level drops that had been heavily documented.  Now, multiple new studies have backed us up.  The economy is perversely helping radio.  For many people in a bind, in 2010 “if it’s free it’s for me.”

#1:  Radio stations will begin to separate into two ad selling camps:  those that sell almost purely by the ratings and those that do not.  The drama and contemptuous reactions surrounding the roll-out of PPM, not to mention associated price increases to radio stations for those ratings in a historically-low economic climate, will take its toll.  PPM ratings have quickly separated the mainstream “have’s” from all other radio stations (the “have nots”).  There are only so many mainstream positions in any market, and, as we all know, the traditional forms are all taken.  How long will the “have nots” pay for ratings that will never reward them?  While that nuance is taken off the table in diary markets, the expense factor is a major issue, and some broadcasters will choose simply sell without ratings.  In medium and smaller markets, it’s a fair proposition to sell advertising based on the response a station can generate.  As radio diversifies its selling techniques into event/NTR and digital arenas, the whole CPM selling model, and the expense for ratings that go along with that, will be tested.  I believe 2010 is the year the schism becomes obvious to the naked eye.

Things are really starting to heat up in radio, and I believe it’s slowly turning for the better.  I wish it could be faster.  With four kids entering or already in college, I personally can’t wait for 2015.